Strategic analysis of relations between China and Africa: Tanzania’s chance to deepen inclusive relations

BEIJING, CHINA: LOOKING closely at nations not previously included in the globalisation process, we can see that China, India, Brazil, and South Africa are becoming significant drivers of economic growth.

With this growth, concerns over the effects of China’s recent rapid expansion on the global economy, particularly in SubSaharan Africa, are voiced, given investment possibilities anticipated in the consumer, agricultural, industrial, financial, and logistics sectors as China’s economies expand their influence.

To many nations, including Tanzania, better growth in China, in my opinion, will make the global manufacturing markets more competitive and have effects and impact on the manufacturing sectors of many nations.

However, the critical question is- how is Tanzania is strategically positioning to strengthen its inclusive relations, ultimately making Tanzania gain competitively?

Unquestionably, since its establishment in 2000, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) has been a pillar of the relationship between China and Africa.

Nonetheless, growing geopolitical tensions will force China to focus its stance towards other global powers during the ninth summit, which is taking place in Beijing from September 4–6, 2024, with President Samia Suluhu Hassan of Tanzania being one of the guests.

As much as I am not a delegate, I believe that African nations, rather than those that have never before, must reconsider the future course of the partnership during this summit.

Why, if adequately implemented, FOCAC has the potential to usher in a new age of mutually beneficial and sustainable cooperation that could make Tanzania gain enormously.

There will be talks, agreements, and joint ventures between China and African countries at this summit.

That is the primary method for significant policy coordination that occurs or is made possible every three years.

For instance, FOCAC has historically resulted in substantial financial pledges: at the 2021 summit, records show that US$40 billion was pledged for infrastructure, agriculture, and manufacturing.

For us analysts, FOCAC’s institutional structures have facilitated project implementation. By October 2021, 155 billion of the 191 billion US dollars in planned loans between 2006 and 2021 had been completed.

Nevertheless, it is challenging to gauge results because of the agreements’ opaque nature and their variety of funding sources.

Those who haven’t been keeping up with things since the beginning will concur with me that the FOCAC schedule has always had two tiers of meetings.

One is recognised as a ministerial conference attended by high-ranking officials or foreign ministers.

Their duties include assessing the state of affairs, outlining a strategic agenda, and creating comprehensive plans for carrying out the agreed-upon action plan while ensuring that initiatives are followed up on and cooperation is maintained.

Heads of state and government representatives attend the summit, which is the second level. Its purpose is to concentrate on strategic decisions and large-scale initiatives based on the needs of the partnership, leading to significant declarations and high-level commitments that aid in determining the general course of China-Africa relations.

What matters most in these two kinds of meetings is how the guests are ready to ensure they don’t leave empty-handed.

It will rely on how the powerful nation, and, in this case, China, postures itself and alters itself at these meetings.

This September 4-6th September, 2024 will be different in my circumstances for one primary reason compared to the previous FOCAC.

Why? The Communist Party of China revealed significant market-oriented reforms during its third plenum in July 2024.

In my judgment, this action was carried out by President Xi Jinping’s 2017 policy, which called for a change from rapid to high-quality development to promote more balanced and sustainable economic growth.

This was emphasised once more during the FOCAC 2024 summit preliminary talks, indicating a focus on environmental sustainability, local community benefits, and economic viability.

About Africa, this denotes market-oriented changes that, if taken as a whole, should quicken the shift away from state-led initiatives and towards increased private sector participation, as was noted during the Dakar FOCAC VIII summit in 2021.

At the bigger picture, China is strengthening its efforts to fortify its ties with the Global South, viewing these relationships as economic opportunities and essential components of an emerging global political force.

As a result, this year’s summit takes place in the backdrop of growing resistance to China from a coalition led by the United States.

I think this presents another opportunity for African nations to firm up and have robust plans to deliver a win-win situation in their engagement with China.

Based on this reality, I am optimistic that this year’s 2024 FOCAC summit will usher in a new era of cooperation that will be mutually beneficial and sustainable, since Tanzania and other African countries are well aware of the areas where high-level decisions will benefit their economies.

To Tanzania, this may include, among other things, the resuscitation of the historic Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA) rail line, cooperation in agriculture, industrialisation, and overall infrastructure development, which are strategically crucial for landlocked countries in their import and export trade.

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The subject of this year’s 2024 summit, Joining Hands to Advance Modernisation and Build a High-Level China-Africa Community with a Shared Future, encourages thoughtful reflection and puts China in a position to strengthen ties with Africa in a way that advances China’s larger geopolitical objectives, a position that may raise a second question as to where does this leave Africa?

Although there are many different ways to look at this, Africa’s geopolitical relevance is starting to equal, if not surpass, the continent’s economic significance to China’s expansion.

Economic solid relations would surely help Beijing win over African support in international fora, giving China more clout in global security and diplomacy.

For those who do not care about economic security, this backing is essential as Beijing tries to reform what it perceives to be an unbalanced global order.

Heads of state from Africa should, in my opinion, be given the chance to raise any concerns they may have when attending these summits.

This means that African nations must put their economic needs first and concentrate on advancing the value chain.

While the FOCAC unquestionably will offer beneficial trade, infrastructure, and development financing opportunities, African nations must avoid piling up debt and pointless initiatives.

They can use FOCAC to facilitate sustainable growth and value chain advancement by coordinating around shared priorities.

On the other hand, China’s perspective clearly states its goals in the China-Africa Cooperation Vision 2035.

Short-term bilateral relations should be closely aligned with Agenda 2063 of the African Union, which centres on inclusive growth, sustainable development, peace, regional integration, and, when needed, economic security.

We must become more intelligent going forward. It is sometimes too late for African nations to wait for the FOCAC to define the agenda.

The summit is the result of numerous preparation sessions when decisions are made in significant part in advance.

Therefore, while African nations should work to obtain advantageous conditions at the summit, it can also be used as a safety net to turn down proposals that don’t fit with the objectives of the continent.

African nations must coordinate their efforts with Agenda 2063 to optimise the impact of the 2024 FOCAC funding.

Although the FOCAC verbally endorses these objectives, African countries must ensure their bilateral agreements with China complement continental frameworks like the African Continental Free Trade Area and regional infrastructure initiatives.

This alignment is essential, particularly since the private sector is becoming more involved in these agreements, which could result in dispersed development initiatives.

African nations may integrate Chinese investment with their long-term ambitions and bolster economic resilience by working with Agenda 2063 and fostering a single market.

Africa’s financing landscape and even attracting FDIs is changing as significant nations vie for influence globally and split farther apart.

These changes include the EU’s Global Gateway and the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment.

Tanzania must preserve its strategic independence to take advantage of any chances for Africa, particularly for Tanzania, to gain a win-win position